Abstract
February continued the sales growth rebound from the Holiday Season’s slowing growth rate.
Retail Green Shoots
February continued the sales growth rebound from the Holiday Season’s slowing growth rate.
Two for Two
February’s monthly retail sales growth rate increased making for two consecutive quarters of accelerating sales growth rates.
These green shoots are welcome news after the monthly retail sales growth rate decelerated during the holiday Season from October to December.
Looking forward, this key logistics space demand driver will face a mix of tailwinds and headwinds.
OBBBA related larger personal income tax refunds as well as no tax on tips and overtime (up to a cap) will increase consumer spending power.
Conversely, higher gas prices, and depending on the duration of the Strait of Hormuz disruption, higher food and other goods prices, will reduce discretionary income.
Category Level Rebound Drivers
During the Holiday Season, December’s retail sales were 0.3% higher than October’s, while February’s retail sales were 0.7% higher than December’s, a significant rebound in sales growth.
Non-store retailers were the greatest contributor to the rebound, rising from a 0.7% October to December increase to 2.0% sales growth from December to February, a near tripling of the Holiday Season increase.
Apparel also saw a significant rebound increasing over its October to December -0.4% decline to a 1.3% increase over December’s apparel sales to February’s sales.
Electronics and appliance retailers’ growth also increased from 0.7% Holiday Season growth to a1.3% December to February increase.
Conversely, building materials retailers, while still positive, saw their growth decrease from its robust 2.5% Holiday Season growth to 1.1% from December to February.
All references to retail sales, unless otherwise noted are nominal retail sales excluding restaurant, auto, and gasoline station sales.
